Spatiotemporal changes analysis of land desertification sensitivity in Ningxia, China

Desertification has posed a huge threat to the natural ecological environment and human society, and has been one of the most serious global environmental and socio-economic problems in the world. Ningxia is located in the arid and semi-arid transition zone of China, which is a highly ecologically sensitive area. In order to monitor the characteristics of desertification sensitivity and its spatiotemporal changes in Ningxia, four factors, such as soil, topography, natural environment, and socio-economic predictive factors, were selected to model and analyze land desertification sensitivity of Ningxia using logistic regression model in this study. Based on the desertification sensitivity of Ningxia in 2001 and 2017, the following conclusions were obtained in this study: 1) The logistic regression model could be used to detect the desertification sensitivity of Ningxia. The accuracy of the model in 2001 reached 85%, and the accuracy of the model in 2017 reached 78%; 2) The regions of Ningxia were ranked according to the desertification sensitivity from low to high, which were the northern Yellow River irrigation area, the southern loess hilly area, and the central arid area; 3) Compared with 2001, the risk level of desertification in Ningxia in 2017 showed a general decreasing trend. Approximately 39 percent of high-risk and extremely high-risk zones were converted into low-risk and medium-risk-grade zones, because of prohibition of grazing and implementation of artificial ecological restoration methods. This study could provide timely reference information for the implementation of desertification prevention and control work in Ningxia by monitoring the dynamic changes of desertification-prone areas in Ningxia.