Shallow groundwater level under climate change conditions in the Taoer River plain

Data of precipitation, temperature, surface water runoff, groundwater depth were applied to Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, to analyze variation trend in hydrological and meteorological elements．Hydrogeological overview in the study area was combined with groundwater numerical model to predict groundwater level dynamics．Groundwater depth in the study area was found to have increased significantly, precipitation did not increase, but air temperature increased, surface runoff decreased significantly．Visual MODFLOW model was used to predict future groundwater level under base scenario (mean precipitation conditions in the base period) and three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585)．Shallow groundwater depth in the north of the study area was found to continue to increase under baseline scenario and three climate scenarios, but groundwater depth in the south decreased．Groundwater depth under the three climate scenarios was found to be greater than groundwater depth under baseline scenario．