Cellular automata simulation of population expansion dynamics of Spartina alterniflora in the Yellow River Delta

Spartina alterniflora, a major invasive species in coastal Chinese wetland, is widely distributed in the eastern coast of China, seriously threatening local ecosystem．The population expansion dynamics of S. alterniflora was therefore simulated for the prevention and control of S. alterniflora invasion．A sexual S. alterniflora expansion was considered, population expansion was established based on cellular automata．Dynamic invasion and expansion from 2014 to 2018 was simulated and compared to remote sensing interpretation results for model calibration and verification．Distribution range of S. alterniflora in 2020 was predicted, further expansion and settlement in the low tidal flat area on both sides of the Yellow River estuary was found, with a total distribution area of 4118.15 hm²．Simulation of different scenarios with and without influence of coexistent native plants revealed little influence of native plants on population expansion of S. alterniflora．This model could therefore reproduce the invasion and expansion process, predict the expansion trend, and provide scientific suggestions for the ecological control of the alien species S. alterniflora in the Yellow River Delta．