Scarcity of metal resources in the “Belt and Road” countries

Metal resources are important for national economic development, social progress and indispensable for industrialization and urbanization．After the “Belt and Road” initiative was proposed and implemented, development and cooperation in mineral resources tended to be strengthened．Distribution characteristics and development potentials of metal resources in countries along the route have attracted widespread attention．Here we analyze distribution and utilization of resources in the “Belt and Road” countries by accounting metal reserves and extractions in these countries．These countries are found to be rich in metal resources and are complementary to certain extent．However, the amount of metal mining is large．Analysis of metal extraction alone cannot reflect the extent of metal scarcity．In this study we introduce the concept of scarce metal coefficient to obtain scarcity-weighted metal extraction index．It turned out that the total scarcity-weighted metal extraction in the “Belt and Road” countries increased by 25 times, and the scarcity-weighted extraction of each metal increased rapidly from 2000-2017．Titanium, silver, and manganese were found to have increased most rapidly by 173, 55, and 53 times respectively．Scarcity-weighted metal extractions in Turkey, Myanmar, and China increased most rapidly by 151, 34 and 7 times respectively．The risks for metal resource scarcity in the “Belt and Road” countries remain unoptimistic, these countries should actively cooperate to share metal utilization technologies and improve use efficiency of metal resources．In addition, we suggest these countries develop vigorously a circular economy to increase the use of recycled metals and jointly build a green “Belt and Road”．