Typhoon disaster risk assessment in Guangdong province by regional disaster system theory：case of “Mangkhut”

The main purpose of this research is to construct a typhoon disaster risk assessment model suitable for Guangdong province, so as to provide targeted reference advice on disaster relief and emergency decision-making after the occurrence of typhoons．Under the guidance of regional disaster system theory, this paper comprehensively constructs a new evaluation indicators system from three aspects: the fatalness of disaster-inducing factors, sensitivity of disaster-formative environment, vulnerability of disaster-bearing body and constructs the Guangdong province typhoon disaster risk assessment model based on the weighted comprehensive evaluation method, the analytic hierarchy process and the natural breaks point classification method．And illustrated by the case of the super typhoon No. 22 in 2018 “Mangkhut” to conduct a typhoon disaster risk assessment in Guangdong province, and finally a comprehensive risk zoning map of 1 km×1 km spatial units and the results of evaluation and analysis will be formed. The result shows that: 1) The medium and high-risk areas evaluated by the model for the “Mangkhut” typhoon disaster in Guangdong province are consistent with the disaster report and have high reliability; 2) The fatalness of disaster-inducing factors of the “Mangkhut” typhoon disaster in Guangdong province are high in the central-eastern coastal and central-western regions, and gradually decrease to the surrounding areas; 3) The areas with high sensitivity of disaster-formative environment in Guangdong province typhoon disaster are concentrated in the Pearl River Delta area and the Chaoshan area in eastern Guangdong．These areas are the flat terrain, dense river network and low vegetation coverage; 4) The areas with high vulnerability of disaster-bearing body in Guangdong province typhoon disaster are concentrated in the Pearl River Delta area, the Chaoshan area in eastern Guangdong and the Maozhan area in western Guangdong．These areas are densely populated, economically developed, numerous arable land and highly urbanized; 5) The comprehensive risk of “Mangkhut” typhoon disaster in Guangdong province are high in the central-eastern coastal, central-western regions and gradually decrease to the surrounding areas．The highly risk areas mainly include Yangjiang city, Jiangmen city, Zhuhai city, Shenzhen city, Huizhou city, Shanwei city, etc．