Land use change and ecological security in Aksu

To explore ecological security response to multi-scenario land use changes in arid areas will help to promote scientific land development and utilization and to build ecological security systems．The CA-MCE-Markov model was applied to design and simulate land use changes in natural development, economic development priority and internal enhancement scenarios in Aksu in 2030．PSR model was used to evaluate land ecological security levels quantitatively．In terms of area change, simulation indicated that cultivated land will decrease by 774 square kilometers, urban and rural construction land will increase by 100 square kilometers in an internal enhancement scenario, to achieve intensive development．Natural development and economic development priority scenarios will increase cultivated land by 3436 km², urban and rural construction land by 386 km²．In terms of spatial change, inversion positions of cultivated land, forest land and water area in natural development scenario are inconsistent with reality, layout of urban and rural construction land in economic development priority scenario is rough, layout of urban and rural construction land in internal enhancement scenario is reasonable．If development status continues over the years, level of ecological security will continue to decrease. If economic development is given priority, safety pressure and bearing capacity response are still serious problems．In contrast, ecological security level of internal enhancement scenario will be greatly improved, which is the optimal simulation scheme and high ecological security．By evaluating multi-scenario land use changes, we provide measures and methods to solve actual conflicts, seek sustainable development, and improve ecological environment．