Quantifying regional carbon inequality and policy implications under the “Belt and Road” Initiative

In the context of global trade, quantitative analysis of carbon inequality in the “Belt and Road” region, and clarification of internal mechanism of uneven distribution of embodied carbon emissions and economic benefits in the “Belt and Road” region lay the scientific foundation for implementation of green “Belt and Road” Initiative．Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database was used to build an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model．This MRIO model covers a total of 102 countries and regions in the “Belt and Road” region, divided into 9 areas according to location．Carbon emissions were calculated from the perspective of production and consumption, traces spatial transfer patterns of embodied carbon emissions and added value．Index of carbon inequality in bilateral trade and comprehensive index of carbon inequality in the global trade network were built, to comprehensively quantify and analyze the phenomenon of carbon inequality．In 2014, carbon emissions from production and consumption in the “Belt and Road” region accounted for 65.29% and 60.54% of total global carbon emissions (25966.23 Mt), respectively．Value added from production and consumption in the region accounted for 40.87% and 40.10% of total global value added (66971.427 billion US dollars), respectively．In Global trade, the “Belt and Road” region bore 1234.25 Mt of net carbon emission transfer from non “Belt and Road” region, and obtained 515.483 billion US dollars of net economic benefits from non the “Belt and Road” region．“Belt and Road” Middle East region, was found to be the only net importer of embodied carbon emissions: a transfer of 152.18 Mt of carbon emissions to “Belt and Road” region, and a net economic benefits of 280.136 billion US dollars in Global trade．China was the largest net exporter of embodied carbon emissions, bearing 903.98 Mt of net carbon emissions, 31.30% was from the “Belt and Road” region．China bore a net economic loss of 34.912 billion US dollars in Global trade．Carbon inequality index between China and “Belt and Road” Middle East region was the largest, reaching 1.75．China was in a disadvantaged position for carbon inequality in bilateral trade, mainly due to serious mismatch of embodied carbon emissions and value added in the bilateral trade between heavy industry, construction sector and “Belt and Road” Middle East region. Comprehensive index of carbon inequality in the global trade network of “Belt and Road” Middle East region was 2.53．Agriculture, construction, and service industries in the region were net importers of embodied carbon emissions, while the heavy industry sector obtained a large amount of net economic benefits．“Belt and Road” region was generally at a disadvantage in the global trade carbon inequality．Comprehensive indexes of carbon inequality in global trade network of China, “Belt and Road” South Asia region and “Belt and Road” Europe region were −2.60, −2.16 and −2.22 respectively, being victims of carbon inequality in global trade．This work provides the scientific basis for implementation of green “Belt and Road” Initiative under Global trade and realization of coordinated development of the “Belt and Road” regional carbon governance and economy．