Marginal abatement cost analysis of urban carbon neutralization measures: taking Beijing as a case

Cities are the main site to achieve carbon neutrality．Under the carbon neutrality target, more emission reduction technologies and policies will be encouraged, to play a role in the low carbon transformation of cities. In this study the marginal abatement cost method is used to analyze the abatement potential and cost of specific abatement technologies in the context of low-carbon measures promotion in Beijing．The marginal abatement cost curve for Beijing with 35 abatement measures is drawn, and priority abatement measures with high economic efficiency are identified．This study also provides a prioritization of technology measures and implementation paths for Beijing to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality．This study shows the following 3 points．1) The screening of emission reduction technologies for the power sector, transportation sector, and building sector reveals an emission reduction potential of 1 496 million tons, 766 million tons, and 255 million tons, respectively．The average marginal carbon abatement cost is 485.12 yuan·t⁻¹, and the average abatement costs of the power sector, transportation sector and construction sector are 154.56, 417.56 and 688.28 yuan·t⁻¹ respectively．Power abatement measures should be promoted in Beijing to ensure that Beijing’s carbon emissions enter a phase of rapid decline．2) Among the 35 emission reduction measures, the marginal abatement cost of 11 of them is negative; the cost-effective abatement potential is 399.67 million t CO₂, accounting for 39.15%．Negative cost measures such as electric cabs, electric buses and electric light trucks, and lighting energy efficiency should be vigorously promoted at the early stage of emission reduction．3) High marginal abatement cost measures have high abatement potential, but the implementation is difficult due to cost barriers．To promote the proliferation of such abatement technologies, the government can adopt a certain degree of subsidies or incentive policies to ensure the stability of abatement investment returns and to reduce the risk of abatement investment．