Drivers and decoupling effects of carbon emissions in Northwest China

Contradiction between demand for rapid economic growth and “doubling carbon” target in Northwest China is a difficult problem to solve．Data of Northwest China from 2011 to 2019 were subject to analysis with carbon emission coefficient method, to account for carbon emission of energy consumption, and with LMDI method, to study influence of energy structure, energy intensity, economic output and population size on the carbon emission level．This study shows the following 3 points: 1) Shaanxi province is the largest province in Northwest China in terms of carbon emissions, followed by Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia and Qinghai．2) Economic output and population size will promote carbon emissions, and the impact of population size on carbon emissions is smaller compared with economic output．Energy intensity will promote carbon emission reduction．The role of energy structure on carbon emissions has two sides．3) The decoupling relationships of total carbon emission, carbon emission intensity, per capita carbon emission and economic development all tend to change to strong decoupling．Shaanxi, Gansu, Xinjiang and Qinghai achieve strong decoupling of total carbon emission, carbon emission intensity, per capita carbon emission and economic development．These findings enrich the research field of carbon emission drivers and decoupling effects, provide targeted policy recommendations for coordinating regional economic development and reducing carbon emissions in Northwest China．