An evolutionary game model for international food trade network

The global COVID-19 epidemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict have seriously affected global food trade． How importing countries take proper measures to deal with food import shocks is a key issue to control risks of international food trade． An evolutionary game model for international food trade network was developed in this paper, with reference to the 2018 global rice import and export trade data． A key parameter of import strategies, historical dependence, was proposed, and its impact on food import shocks was analyzed． Low historical dependence was found to lead to a high trade concentration and increase the probability of high-intensity shocks． However, high historical dependence would increase the probability of shocks of medium or above intermediate intensity． To control the risk of food import shocks, importing countries need to maintain their historical dependence at moderate levels．